NORTH
KJT92
4
Q83
AQ84
A75
KT2
KT962
T7
Q43
953
4
KJ9652
  86
AQJ876
AJ75
3
Dealer: South    Vul: None   MP Scoring

West

2
Pass
Pass
Pass

North

2
3
3N

East

Pass
X 1
Pass

South
1
2N
3 2
Pass

 Many Choices 
1 Lead directing
2 Attempt to Evade a Double
This board rotated to make declarer South: original board number: 8

North South were most at odds on this hand.
While not explicitly agreed, South believed that 3 was a weak bid (for a hand already advertised as 10+ via the 2 bid ), including 5+ clubs (10 or 11 points maximum).
South's singleton club after a suggested 'balanced' 2N and 6 card heart suit and maximum two card spade support suggested alternatives just worse.
North's 3N bid was a bit of a surprise, since a weak hand opposite the minimum opener that 2N (less than a good 14 points) advertised.
The idea of bidding 3 instead of 3 grew in attractiveness.

West was obedient to East's lead directing double (of 3) with the T.
Declarer considered the auction and probabilities: North South had combined 24 HCP, West required an opening hand to overcall 2 and East might be expected to have 5+ clubs including at least the KJxxx(xx).
At matchpoints, if East held 7 clubs, winning the first club would be best.
If holding 5 clubs, if the first trick were won, if East had no other entry, West would have to lead clubs through twice more to establish East's club suit.
However, given East had doubled with top three club values being at best KJ9 (declarer could see at trick one West's T and dummy's AQ8), the a priori relative odds of West's being dealt a 5 card suit rather than a 6 card suit might be roughly calculated via radio buttons 8, 8 and 12 then find button at http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm and summation to be perhaps
35.21 : 20.54 : 5.03 for East's club length scenarios 5:6:7

While a 5 card suit, assumed exactly 5 diamonds with West and 1 with East, is more likely, the implication of the 3 double's suit length/quality requirements may well suggest East better relied upon for 6 club cards.

In the case of 6 clubs, ducking the first club lead is best and East will be held to one club trick.

As it was, the A was won at trick one. Assuming East has then both K and J, remaining for West to have for a 2 bid would be 12 HCP. If absent the K, then 9 points would for a suit missing at least the AQJ8753 have been the case.
West was assumed the K. South won A at trick two and had to decide if West's K was originally doubleton or tripleton.
If the former, then exiting a small heart is right. If the latter, at trick 3 leading the J looks right.
Has all been banked on East's having 5 clubs?

Back to the suit division calculator

Assuming diamonds 5:1 West:East and clubs 2:6 West:East, entering 6, 6, 6, Find in that webpage suggests of 6 card heart divisions comparatively:
24.35 : 43.29 (2West :4East : 3West:3East).
Of course West might have had a 6th diamond (6, 5, 7, Find) 37.88 : 37.88 or a 3rd club(6, 5, 7, Find) 37.88 : 37.88 or perhaps even both (6, 4, 8, Find) 45.45 : 24.24

Declarer decided to play for a 2:4 West:East heart division, perhaps committed to the trick one choice and simply ducked a heart to West's T, not impressing spectating dummy.
West continued a club, East winning KJ and exiting a spade to West's A for in total 2 clubs, 2 hearts and two hearts: 3N down two.


8> 1.83 1.83 5.92 0.08 3.58 4.75
-50 ---- -50 430 -100 100 400 ----

From: http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm : A Bridge Toy by Richard Pavlicek

Missing 8 Cards

West
(8 spaces)
East
(12 spaces)
Probability Percentages
Specific Generic Group
4 4  0.39 27.51 27.51
5 3  0.17 9.78 44.99
3 5  0.63 35.21
6 2  0.05 1.47 22.01
2 6  0.73 20.54
7 1  0.01 0.08 5.11
1 7  0.63 5.03
8 0  0.00 0.00 0.39
0 8  0.39 0.39
Check Totals: 100.00 100.00

Specific is for one exact holding with the indicated break.
Generic is for all possible holdings with the indicated break.
Group is the sum of generic percentages of a break either way.