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was a weak bid (for a hand already advertised as 10+ via the 2
bid ), including 5+ clubs (10 or 11 points maximum).
instead of 3
grew in attractiveness.
West was obedient to East's lead directing double (of 3
)
with the
T.
Declarer considered the auction and probabilities: North South had combined
24 HCP, West required an opening hand to overcall 2
and East might be expected to have 5+ clubs including at least the
KJxxx(xx).
At matchpoints, if East held 7 clubs, winning the first club would be best.
If holding 5 clubs, if the first trick were won, if East had no other entry,
West would have to lead clubs through twice more to establish East's club
suit.
However, given East had doubled with top three club values being at best
KJ9
(declarer could see at trick one West's
T and dummy's
AQ8), the a priori relative odds of West's being dealt
a 5 card suit rather than a 6 card suit might be roughly
calculated via radio buttons 8, 8 and 12 then find button at http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm
and summation to be perhaps
35.21 : 20.54 : 5.03 for East's club length scenarios 5:6:7
While a 5 card suit, assumed exactly 5 diamonds with West and 1 with East,
is more likely, the implication of the 3
double's
suit length/quality requirements may well suggest East better relied upon
for 6 club cards.
In the case of 6 clubs, ducking the first club lead is best and East will
be held to one club trick.
As it was, the
A was won at trick one. Assuming East
has then both
K and
J, remaining
for West to have for a 2
bid would be 12 HCP. If absent
the
K, then 9 points would for a suit missing at least
the
AQJ8753 have been the case.
West was assumed the
K. South won
A
at trick two and had to decide if West's
K was originally
doubleton or tripleton.
If the former, then exiting a small heart is right. If the latter, at trick
3 leading the
J looks right.
Has all been banked on East's having 5 clubs?
Back to the suit division calculator
Assuming diamonds 5:1 West:East and clubs 2:6 West:East, entering 6, 6,
6, Find in that webpage
suggests of 6 card heart divisions comparatively:
24.35 : 43.29 (2West :4East : 3West:3East).
Of course West might have had a 6th diamond (6, 5, 7, Find) 37.88
: 37.88 or a 3rd club(6, 5, 7, Find) 37.88 : 37.88
or perhaps even both (6, 4, 8, Find) 45.45 : 24.24
Declarer decided to play for a 2:4 West:East heart division, perhaps committed
to the trick one choice and simply ducked a heart to West's
T,
not impressing spectating dummy.
West continued a club, East winning
KJ and exiting
a spade to West's
A for in total 2 clubs, 2 hearts
and two hearts: 3N down two.
8> 1.83 1.83 5.92 0.08 3.58 4.75
-50 ---- -50 430 -100 100 400 ----
From: http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm : A Bridge Toy by Richard Pavlicek
| West (8 spaces) | East (12 spaces) | Probability Percentages | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific | Generic | Group | ||
| 4 | 4 | 0.39 | 27.51 | 27.51 |
| 5 | 3 | 0.17 | 9.78 | 44.99 |
| 3 | 5 | 0.63 | 35.21 | |
| 6 | 2 | 0.05 | 1.47 | 22.01 |
| 2 | 6 | 0.73 | 20.54 | |
| 7 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 5.11 |
| 1 | 7 | 0.63 | 5.03 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 0 | 8 | 0.39 | 0.39 | |
| Check Totals: | 100.00 | 100.00 | ||
Specific is for one exact holding with the indicated break.
Generic is for all possible holdings with the indicated break.
Group is the sum of generic percentages of a break either way.