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How do you eke out a twelfth trick?
Clubs were led and repeated after trumps were started and immediately halted
by defender's
A.
What next?
There seemed to be 4 plans:
1)
A to drop the singleton
K
on either side. Computing...
Requires a 5:1 division of outstanding hearts, the 1 side being that singleton.
5-1 occurs 14.5% of the time and any particular card being the 1 occurs (1of
6 total times ) 16.7% of those times. About 2.4%
2) The Chinese finesse: The
Q
is led from hand hoping that the
K
is onside, not singleton, and the defender plays low, hoping to capture the
upcoming hidden
J, thus, 25%
of the time, requiring misdefence.
3) Leading towards the
Q early
in the hand before other suits are known hoping for either misdefence OR East
to hold the
K and not the
J
and choose to play low
4) Leading towards dummy's
T,
hoping for
KJx(x) onside and
a low play.
How does one weigh the probabilities here?
Do you study your opponents and rate each one on where in their lessons they
might be?
Do you play one way against one opponent and another another? Don't you? Sometimes
no? Sometimes not?