NORTH
 KQ32
 AT82
 AQ4
 93
 8
 J75
 J97652
 QJ5
  AT6
 K93
 T3
 T8642
  J9754
 Q64
 K8
 AK7
Dealer: South    Vul: Both   MP Scoring

West

Pass
Pass

North

2N1
Pass

East

Pass
Pass

South
1
42

 "Chances for a Twelfth Trick" 
1 Jacoby 2N
2 Shortnesslessness and maximumlessness


How do you eke out a twelfth trick?

Clubs were led and repeated after trumps were started and immediately halted by defender's A.

What next?
There seemed to be 4 plans:
1) A to drop the singleton K on either side. Computing...
Requires a 5:1 division of outstanding hearts, the 1 side being that singleton.
5-1 occurs 14.5% of the time and any particular card being the 1 occurs (1of 6 total times ) 16.7% of those times. About 2.4%
2) The Chinese finesse: The Q is led from hand hoping that the K is onside, not singleton, and the defender plays low, hoping to capture the upcoming hidden J, thus, 25% of the time, requiring misdefence.
3) Leading towards the Q early in the hand before other suits are known hoping for either misdefence OR East to hold the K and not the J and choose to play low
4) Leading towards dummy's T, hoping for KJx(x) onside and a low play.

How does one weigh the probabilities here?
Do you study your opponents and rate each one on where in their lessons they might be?
Do you play one way against one opponent and another another? Don't you? Sometimes no? Sometimes not?